Coastal risk analysis
The city under the surge
Who lives, who works and who stays in Cancún's storm-surge hazard zone, and how far they must walk to get out of it.
In one sentenceSizes a risk that is worked in more than lived in: the highest-hazard strip has 10 jobs per resident.
Spanish original: La ciudad bajo la marea
Which city lies under the surge?
When a tropical storm pushes the sea onto the coast and the lagoon, the water does not reach the city where people live but the city where they work.
This atlas crosses the hazard zone with residents, jobs and lodging, and measures how far one must walk to get out.
Key findings
Few residents, many jobs
3,229 people live at medium hazard or higher, but about 33,100 work there: ten jobs per resident.
The hotel zone in front
38% of hotels and 60% of hotel employment are in the highest-hazard strip; Airbnb, by contrast, is spread across the city (14%).
Getting out on foot
Half of the exposed jobs are less than 779 m from safe ground, but at the southern end of the hotel zone the walk reaches 5 km.
Approach
Step 1
Assign census blocks, directory establishments and lodging to the storm-surge hazard level.
Step 2
Compare residents with estimated jobs to separate a risk that is inhabited from one that is worked in.
Step 3
Measure on the pedestrian network the distance to safe ground from every point in the zone.
How to read it
- The scenario is a tropical storm with a 10-year return period, not a major hurricane.
- Employment is estimated from directory range midpoints and recorded where people work, not where they live.
- Walking distance measures remoteness; it is not an evacuation plan.
Data
INEGI 2022
Storm-surge hazard for a tropical storm, 10-year return period.
2020 Census
Population, ages, disability and cars by block.
Business directory 2026
Establishments and employment size range.
Hotels and Airbnb
Counts by block.
What supports the method
- SEDATU (2024)Coastal risks are integrated into the delimitation analysis (p. 98).
Paraphrased; page numbers refer to the PDF consulted. The library is in Spanish.
What you just saw
Hazard zone crossed with population, jobs and lodging, plus walking distance to safe ground.
What else this method can answer
- Who evacuates, and which way?
- Which jobs and lodging are exposed?
- Where should the city not grow?
In other places
Applies with any hazard layer and population and employment data.
Line of work
D · Territorial diagnosis and monitoring →Do you have a similar question in your city?
Describe the problem
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