Housing and displacement analysis
The appreciation frontier
Almost 80,000 people in vulnerable conditions live inside or at the edge of the Cancún areas where land prices are rising; up to 2020, however, the census does not show appreciation pushing them out.
In one sentenceAnticipates where to watch for displacement of vulnerable households, although up to 2020 the data do not show it.
Spanish original: La frontera de la valorización
Does appreciation push out the most vulnerable?
When land prices rise, who lives at the edge?
This atlas places vulnerable households against the areas that are getting more expensive and looks for signs of pressure and displacement.
Key findings
The frontier exists
37,804 people in vulnerable blocks live inside appreciating areas and 40,762 at their edge.
The census shows no expulsion
Vulnerable blocks inside appreciating areas gained population 2010–2020 (+2.6%); the ones that lost were non-vulnerable (−7.9%).
Where to look first
421 vulnerable blocks, with 36,000 residents, combine nearby appreciation with heavy Airbnb presence or population loss.
Approach
Step 1
Identify vulnerable blocks with an explicit rule of three 2020 census conditions.
Step 2
Place them inside, at the edge of or away from superblocks with robust appreciation 2016–2023.
Step 3
Look for pressure signals (Airbnb, retail) and compare population change in vulnerable and non-vulnerable blocks.
How to read it
- The latest population is from 2020: later displacement is not visible here.
- Without tenure or rent data, vulnerability describes conditions, not eviction risk.
- Market prices are by superblock.
Data
2010 and 2020 Censuses
Schooling, health coverage, overcrowding and population.
Market prices
Dynamics by superblock 2016–2023.
Airbnb 2026
Listings by block.
Business directory 2015 and 2026
Establishments.
What you just saw
Block vulnerability rule crossed with the appreciation frontier and pressure signals.
What else this method can answer
- Which blocks should be watched first?
- Which housing instruments apply?
- How should the alert be updated with new data?
In other places
Replicable with census, land values and short-term-rental listings.
Line of work
D · Territorial diagnosis and monitoring →Do you have a similar question in your city?
Describe the problem
Next in Land, housing and zoningSelective intensity